Analytics

It is possible, that some market fall, at least, in the construction-road branch market, could be forecasted beforehand. According to professional estimations of large companies’ leading managers, sales rates of the construction-road equipment started to fall still several months before the crisis. A market saturation finally occured and a sales growth was slower still from the beginning of this year both by dynamics and by absolute figures.

In order to illustrate this affirmation, there at first an analysis of a general age structure has been done. Mashines were distributed according to a production year(graphs 3a-i), and then these graphs were united in one(graph 1). For comparison registration data for the period 1996-2004 are shown in the graph 2. They were, for example, already published in the magazine STT, ¹6, 2004. A superposition of these two graphs indicates not only an increased selection volume, but and a lesser fluctuations amplitude and much more smooth nature of a curve during last years, which reflects a stable growth and a highly favourable situation in the branch.

At the same time, in spite of the fact that a construction works volume is not reduced, and a considerable share of a rental equipment of Moscow legal users’ address, whose mashines work in other regions, an acquisition process of new equipment was hampering. As it will be shown below, the market capacity was approaching to its limit – the curve has passed an upper point in 2007. Because of it, still without the crisis presence, the Moscow market of the construction-road equipment has passed to activities lowering stage. Besides, big dealers have opened regional offices, and sales volumes have smoothly relocated to regions. Most probably, this fall could be of a temporary character, as it has been in previous 3-4 years long cycles, and could last about 1- 1.5 years. But, probably, the situation has changed a little more because the finance crisis has arisen.

In order to chracterize a fleet development during last 4 years, were constructed distributions(diagram 1) according to machines types, and an analysis of fleet renovation was used. A rate – or a growth speed – was calculated as a ratio of mashines number in a selection of some model year to mashines number of the previous model year. A value of a calculated coefficient shows the growth rate(table 1). For example, the mashines number of the model year 2006 was compared to the mashines number of the model year 2005. This ratio change ñharacterizes a supply speed of a fleet with new machines. Thus, if the mashines number of the previous model year is equal to the mashines number of the next model year, then the coefficient will equal 1.

It can be seen in the table, that even some 2008 data growth, which will undoubtedly take place until last 1.5 months of the year(plus in the beginning of next year there will be still supplied mashines of the model year 2008), it will not change a general situation. And this is not because of the crisis, all the more that, as it can be seen in the graph 4, they start to use mashines in a season beginning.

The graph 4 was made for an estimation of season fluctuations and it reflects a change of executed registrations( in the two first graphs are represented not registered actions, but registered mashines, distributed according to their model year, which is not always the same thing) during a calendar year. These changes are conditioned by a seasonal prevalence and a combination of various economic factors. For example, a number of registration actions has fallen several times in October 2008. The selection was made for 2005-2008.

In all graphs are taken into account only a registration without a strike off the register and a re-registration, that is the number of the registration actions in this research is equal to the mashines growth in Moscow construction-road fleet(but, we once more shall specify that it doesn’t coincide according to a date). For example, the same mashine during a year or even a month can be registered, strike off the register, registered by a new owner, again strike off the register and once more having changed an owner, was registered again. The ststistics described in the article and reflecting a dynamics change of the registered mashines number, is taken into account only once. By the way, it is also interesting to estimate mathematically how often the owners were changed.

In order to estimate the owners change frequency, total registration actions numbers were taken according to each equipment type. All registration actions(registration and re-registration) were included into the total figure. Ratios of the registration action numbers according to that or other mashines type to mashines numbers itselves(2005-2008 model years), which are shown in table 2, enable to estimate how often owners were changed. If this figure is big, then one mashine unit has been registered several times, and vice versa.

A value of the coefficient, which was calculated in such a way, depends also on an average mashines age in a fleet. For example, when in the selection there are only new equipment, whose owner during last 4 years wasn’t changed, then this coefficient will be equal to 1.

If an equipment of a model year before 2005 is used, then the coefficient will grow at the expence of a denominator fall(the bigger is the denominator the nearer to 1 it will approach).

Because of it the coefficient can be called as «trouble index». The model year and the frequency of owner change influence on this coefficient growth. The owner change frequency indirectly characterizes the branch stability.

It is necessary to note, that high coefficient values correspond the equipment with a long period of exploitation(rollers, dozers, milling mashines).

The graph 4 illustrates seasonal fluctuations during last 4 years. The examined period was divided into years and months. It can be seen clearly two peaks for mashines of a seasonal usage(in Moscow a motor grader is a winter mashine). The graph fluctuations are not so stable for the all- season mashines.

There are general tendencies for all 9 mashine types. So March-April are periods of a growth stage in all graphs. January and August-September(periods of New Year holydays and vacations) are periods of a still stage.

Unfortunately, because of the crisis the seasonal study of mashines sales has shifted from a practical, useful for dealers sphere to a more theoretical sphere, where it is interesting only for economists. A majority of mashines are bought using leasing schemes and because of it the first crisis blow felt credit organisations. Later on because of construction volumes fall, many companies have to sell part of equipment or, depending on contract conditions, to return it to . And as a number of companies which wish(correctly to say- which have a possibility) to buy both new and used equipment has dropped sharply, then it is not very clear what leasing organisations and banks have to do with the returned equipment.

It is possible, that they will have a greater part of such a technique to put in a dead storage and for that they will need covered guarded grounds and also a service of organisations, which carry out putting in the dead storage and mashines storage.

A lowering of a construction profitability level will cause increase of a specialization in various branch sectors, and, most probably once big construction holdings will have to refuse to support their mechanization fleets, which became unprofitable in conditions of investments and current assets shortage. In such conditions an advantage of a rent and outsourcing will be manifested.

As it was during the memorable 1990s, a role of the state order will rise, in particular, in such segments as a road maintenance and exploitation, construction of social infrastructure structures; it is just here where construction companies, which have changed a main profile, will turn their interests. As a result, this cause an increase of a seasonal registration(sales) peak in November-December, because in the end of a year they provide a main financing of works carried out during a year.

If we consider new mashines sales, then, surely, additional advantages will become more cheaper construction-road mashinery produced in China. These mashines, even in conditions of an economic growth and a practically non-limited crediting of the construction branch, succeeded in pressing more expensive competitors, not speaking about a time when we’ll have «to tighten belts». The crisis has affected Russian producers of mashines in a higher degree than their users. Development perspectives of foreign manufacturers, who have started to build plants in Russia, are also very vague. The crisis, in construction on the whole, points out to it that its consequences will be feeled still not one year. According to the American economist Alvin H. Hansen’s opinion, « with a high degree of regularity each big economic boom approximately coincides with a boom in construction, while a following restoration during a long cycle run into a construction crisis <...> a depression, which takes place in a period of a construction cutting down, as a rule, is deep and long. And the following restoration is delayed and weakened by an unfavorable depressing influence «of the crisis in the construction industry».

There is always a boosting after a crisis, and we have to hope that the State will direct anti- crisis investments, first of all, to the construction branch, which has to become a locomotive of the economy boosting.